Arizona vs Purdue Elite 8 March Madness Betting Picks, Prediction

The Arizona Wildcats will take on the Purdue Boilermakers in the West region of the Elite 8. Arizona’s been dominant, winning their games by an average of 22.3 points. Purdue’s also performed well, but their games have been a bit closer, including coming off a buzzer beater against Texas in the Sweet 16.

These are two sound teams that don’t lose games themselves. They’re both efficient with the ball, don’t give up second-chance opportunities, and limit fouls.

The Wildcats and Boilermakers both feature elite offenses. They currently rank fourth and first in the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency this season. They’ve also both flashed the ability to score from anywhere on the floor.

Defense is what separates these two teams. Arizona also ranks third in the country in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, while Purdue ranks 36th in the same category. The Boilermakers have struggled to find consistent defensive success at times in 2025-26, and that isn’t something the Wildcats have struggled with.

Purdue is an offense that relies heavily on Braden Smith to create shots for others. He ranks sixth in the country in assist rate (43%), and the entire offense runs through him. He consistently makes the right read to give others easy looks.

Arizona isn’t a team that allows a ton of assists, though. Jaden Bradley can pressure Smith with Brayden Burries as a second outstanding guard defender. Arizona also has several high-level bigs to protect the rim, forcing their opponents to consistently make mid-range shots.

The biggest concern for Arizona here is that Purdue is one of the best teams in the NCAA in the mid-range. They have several players who can hit shots in the mid-range, but it simply isn’t the most efficient shot on the floor.

On the other side, Purdue gives up over 35% of their points from beyond the arc, which is one of the highest rates in the country. The Wildcats aren’t a team that takes a ton of threes, but they rank 36th in the country in three-point percentage (36.8%) this season.

Ultimately, there should be different ways for Arizona to find points throughout this game, while Purdue will be forced to consistent score in the mid-range. The Wildcats also have multiple high-level defenders that they can send at Smith, and it’ll be difficult to stick with this talented of a team for the full 40 minutes.

Where to Bet: Arizona -5.5 spread | -120 at FanDuel Sportsbook

2025-26 CBB Season Betting Record: 7-10