Why Texas Tech Could Be a Sneaky Final Four Bet Without JT Toppin

We’re certainly taking a massive chance on Texas Tech to make the Final Four here. 

JT Toppin was injured a few games ago, and he’s been ruled out for the rest of the season. He’s arguably a top 10 player in the NCAA, and it’s a massive loss for the Red Raiders.

I believe we’re getting a bit of a discount because of that injury, though.

Christian Anderson is one of the best point guards in the NCAA, and the offense runs through him. He’s an efficient scorer, but he’s also one of the best facilitators in the country. He currently ranks 25th in assist rate, while shooting over 40% from deep.

The key for Texas Tech is that they aren’t an offense that needs to rely on a specific player like Toppin. They’re replacing his minutes with Luke Bamgboye and Josiah Moseley.

The replacement works because of the style of game Bamgboye and Moseley play. Both players can run the pick-and-roll with Anderson, while boasting enough athleticism to consistently finish at the rim. They’re also players who can change the game defensively, as they’ve combined for 15 blocks in their last three games without Toppin.

Texas Tech was already relying heavily on the three-point shot, even with Toppin dominating the paint. Nearly 50% of their shots come from deep, and they rank sixth in the NCAA, shooting 39.5% from deep.

We already talked about how Anderson can light it up from deep, but Donovan Atwell is their best shooter. He’s shooting slightly over 45% from beyond the arc on elite volume. He’ll continue to see elite volume with Anderson, as they spearhead this offense.

Jaylen Petty isn’t quite as good of a shooter as the other options, but he’s still shooting 36.7% on the season. He adds a high-end third head to this offense, with LeJuan Watts and Tyeree Bryan being other players who can find scoring success.

The biggest key here is going to be seeding, though. Teams need to stay as a 5-seed or better if they want a true shot at the Final Four. Keep in mind, major upsets happen, but it isn’t something that’s projectable, specifically in this tournament.

If a team falls to the 6-line, they’re going to have to go through 1, 2, and 3 seeds, which feels relatively impossible in this tournament. If they stay on the 4-line or higher, they’ll only need to get through two of those three seeds with the 2/3 eliminating each other.

There is an outside chance that Texas Tech could get up to a 3-seed by the tournament, which would be ideal, and that’d drastically increase their chances.

Where to Bet: Texas Tech to make the final four | +2500 at DraftKings Sportsbook